India Myanmar quandary,a paradoxical policy

Context:-Myanmar’s acting president has declared a fourth extension of the state of emergency for another six months,in violation of the 2008 constitution.And the military has decided to release political prisoners.

Recent crisis in Myanmar:-

• Myanmar has been going through a political crisis since 2021 .The military of Myanmar captured political power in 2021 by nullifying democratic elections and they declared a state of emergency.
• Now recently the emergency has been extended for the fourth time and this is very bad news for Myanmar’s political stability.
• Since the emergency was imposed the pro democracy parties and various ethnic insurgent groups have aligned together to form a national unity government.
• These pro democracy outfits are protesting there fighting for democracy against the military Janta.
• This has led to large scale violence, especially Myanmar’s military has targeted the pro democracy movement, it has arrested several political leaders,it has used disproportionate force including airstrikes and heavy weapons to target the protester and thousands of people have been killed causing large scale destabilisation in myanmar.
• In another instance, the military regime decided to release several political prisoners and even commuted the sentences of Dawn Aung San Suu Kyi and ousted President Win Myint.
• It has even triggered a crisis which affects the border states of India like Manipur and Mizoram.
• Several ethnic tribes of Myanmar share a connection with ethnic primes in North east India.

Emergency and Election:-

• The proposed army elections were postponed by the extension of the Emergency.
• The Armed Conflict Location and Incident Data Project (ACLED) states that citizens of Myanmar experience two and a half times more violence than those in Afghanistan.
• The decision of the National League for Democracy to abstain from the upcoming elections, as well as the exclusion of smaller parties through new party registration laws, has left the USDP unopposed.

Role of India in Myanmar crisis:-

• India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed concern over infrastructure projects and border stability during his meeting with his Myanmar counterpart.
• SAC-M and the UN Special Envoy have reported an increase in India’s arms supplies to the military since the coup. It indicates creating opposition.
• Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from prison offers India an opportunity to engage with her and other pro-democracy actors, fostering dialogue for positive change

Conclusion:-

However, these developments do not signal the beginning of a democratic and peaceful Myanmar.

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