The IPCC Report and India
[GS Paper 3 – Environment and Climate Change]
The IPCC has recently released the second part of the Sixth Assessment Report which talks about climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities and adaptation options. The Assessment Reports, the first of which had come out in 1990, are the most comprehensive evaluations of the state of the earth’s climate. Hundreds of experts go through every available piece of relevant, published scientific information to prepare a common understanding of the changing climate.
The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C; even temporarily exceeding this warming level would mean additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible.
The IPCC report for the first time has looked at the health impacts of climate change. It has found that climate change is increasing vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria or dengue, particularly in sub-tropical regions of Asia. It has also said deaths related to circulatory, respiratory, diabetic and infectious diseases, as well as infant mortality, are likely to increase with a rise in temperature.
The report points out that the rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt.
Concerns for India
- India is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of the population that will be affected by sea-level rise. By the middle of the century, around 35 million of its people could face annual coastal flooding, with 45 million-50 million at risk by the end of the century if emissions are high.
- India will achieve net zero emissions latest by 2070, that is, there will be no net carbon emissions. By 2030, India would also ensure 50% of its energy will be from renewable energy sources. These are the targets mentioned by PM Narendra Modi in the COP26 Glasgow Summit. However, none of this can help the 1.5°C mark from being breached.
- A major point of emphasis of the report is the trend in the ‘wet bulb’ temperature. It is an index of the impact of heat and humidity combined and its effect on health. Indian cities like Lucknow and Patna are already predicted to be having the wet-bulb temperature of 35 degree celsius whereas cities such as Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Indore etc are at the risk of reaching the wet-bulb temperature of 32-34 degree celsius.
- This will have consequences such as a rise in heat-wave linked deaths or reduced productivity. Global sea levels will likely rise 44cm-76cm this century if governments meet their current emission-cutting pledges. This possesses the highest risk for Indian coastal cities.
Way Forward
The Sixth Assessment Report, however, has presented lots of evidence to suggest that pursuing a 2°C target could be disastrous, and more ambitious actions need to be taken to keep the temperature rise within 1.5°C. Experience has shown that partisan economic calculations trump climate considerations, but India must shore up its adaptation measures and urgently move to secure the futures of its many vulnerable who have the most to lose.
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