Importance of Nuclear Weapons in Asia
[GS Paper 2 – International Relations]
Amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian President’s call to have its nuclear warheads on the standby created a lot of tension in Europe and it has also triggered an important debate regarding the utility and importance of nuclear weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism in Asia. For instance, Russia would have thought twice before invading Ukraine, had Ukraine been a country with nuclear weapons.
Recent developments for Nuclear Capabilities
- Former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
- In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
- Taiwan, which is in the cross-hairs of President Xi Jinping’s regional strategy, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force. Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.
Western Powers and their Gambits with Nuclear Weapons
- Washington had made it clear that it had no intention to fight Putin’s armies on Russia’s borders. The threat of escalation to the nuclear level was very much in the mind of NATO’s military planners when the alliance refused to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
- Moscow is also conscious of the fact that there are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France. Although the British and French arsenals are modest they do figure in Moscow’s nuclear assessments.
- Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
- The US and its allies are also pursuing a “hybrid war” that boosts Ukrainian resistance against Russian armed forces and raises military, economic, and political costs of Moscow’s aggression.
Trends in Asia
- The widely discussed prospect of China emulating Russia and invading Taiwan has begun to concentrate the minds of Asian leaders. China had been nibbling away at the territories of its neighbours whether it was in the South China Sea or in the great Himalayas. China has broken its commitments on Hong Kong and absorbed it forcibly.
- Taiwan is far more important for Asian (and global) security than Ukraine is for Europe. Taiwan sits at the heart of the Western Pacific and straddles the sea line of communication in the world’s most dynamic economic arena. When China conquers Taiwan it will dramatically transform the geopolitics of Asia.
- In the past, all the East Asian neighbors of China had toyed with the development of independent nuclear arsenals. The US actively discouraged Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to renounce nuclear weapons in return for American security commitments, including the shelter of the American “nuclear umbrella”.
- There is a growing concern in the region about whether the US nuclear umbrella or the so-called extended deterrence will work against the rapidly growing military power and nuclear clout of China.
Way Forward
These are the context in which China’s eastern neighbors are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option. Although Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan have significant technological capabilities, developing a nuclear arsenal would be the last and most politically risky option. For now, their focus is on strengthening the military alliance with the US and boosting national defence capabilities including advanced missile systems.
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