IMD forecasts a normal monsoon this year

Context – Predicting a  “normal” monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first Long Range Forecast (LFR) has said that rainfall will be normal or above normal in most parts of the country, except the North-East, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

IMD officials said the onset of the southwest monsoon — which accounts for about 75 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall — over Kerala remains June 1. Every year, IMD releases the long range forecast in two stages — in April and June.

Key Highlights

• The onset of the southwest monsoon accounts for 75% of the country’s annual rainfall over Kerala.

• The southwest monsoon rainfall from June to September will be normal up to 99 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is 87cm.

• This is the fourth consecutive year with a normal rainfall prediction

Long Period Average (LPA):

• The LPA is defined as the average of the last 50 years. Till last year, the average of the period between 1961-2011 was taken as LPA.

• This year, the LPA baseline has been changed to 1971-2020 under routine revision that happens every decade.

• The LPA has changed from 88cm to 87cm.

About Indian Meteorological Department (IMD):

• It was formed in 1875 and deals with issues related to meteorology, seismology, and associated objects.

• It functions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The department warns against weather phenomena, heat waves, rains, cyclones, etc.

• The IMD uses four colors for weather warnings: 

1. Green (No action needed)
2. Yellow (watch and stay updated)
3. Orange (Be prepared)
4. Red (take action)

About El Nino

• It is a climate pattern that possesses unusual warming of surface waters in the Eastern tropical Pacific ocean.

• It is the warm phase pattern of El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Download as PDF