Why the Developing El Niño is a Concern for India

Context

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the possibility that the current El Niño will be one of the strongest since 1950, with a decrease in monsoon rains in India, agriculture, water security and economic stability becoming issues of concern.

Key Highlights

• El Niño now looks like it will be one of the strongest to date since 1950, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
• The event started in June 2026 and may intensify even more, with a strong likelihood that it will persist in the early months of 2027.
• Below normal monsoon rainfall would occur in India, which would pose serious challenges to the agriculture, food security and economic growth of the country.

What is El Niño?

• El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural phenomenon in sea temperature and atmospheric pressure that takes place in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• It has the following characteristics:
  •  Sea surface temperature: Abnormally warm waters over the Niño 3.4 region of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
  • Reduction in strength of the trade winds.
  • Alterations in the circulation and rainfall of the atmosphere.
  • El Niño is official when the SST in the Niño 3.4 region is over 0.5°C for more than 60 days.

ENSO: El Niño and La Niña

• During El Niño conditions, there are also increases in the temperature of the oceans and a general reduction in rainfall over India.
• La Niña is cooler than normal water temperature in the Pacific and generally intensifies Indian summer monsoon.
• One of the most important causes for global climate variability is ENSO.
• Short-term Status of the El Niño current state of conditions for El Niño.
• El Niño 3.4 index has surpassed the threshold of 1.2°C for a moderate El Niño.
• The event likely could:
  • Strengthen to a severe (strong/very strong) El Niño.
  • Continue until early 2027.
  • El Niño is typically considered very strong when the Niño 3.4 index is 2°C or higher.

Impact on India

• Monsoon Rainfall

  • Its influence on the Indian southwest monsoon is through its effect on reduction in moisture transport towards the Indian subcontinent.
  • Combined situation of rainfall is likely to be below the normal long period averages, particularly in the critical monsoon season.
  • Below-normal rainfall can contribute to general drought across the region.

• Agriculture

  • Below normal precipitation would have negative impacts on:
    • Kharif crop sowing.
    • Crop productivity.
    • Irrigation availability.
    • Farm incomes.
    • Rain fed agriculture is extremely vulnerable.

• Water Resources

  • Less precipitation could decrease:
    • Reservoir storage.
    • Groundwater recharge.
    • River flows.
    • Drought availability may decrease in drought affected areas.

• Economy

  • The agriculture sector plays an important role in the rural employment base and demand.
  • A weak monsoon may:
    • Increase food inflation.
    • Reduce rural consumption.
    • Affect overall economic growth.
    • Apply fiscal pressure through relief measures.

• Environment

  • Greater likelihood of:
    • Heatwaves.
    • Forest fires.
    • Droughts.
    • Water stress.
    • Ecosystem degradation.

Role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects rainfall over India.
• This can lead to a weakened negative IOD, a trend that could somewhat offset the negative impact of El Niño.
• But predictions suggest that the IOD is set to be neutral, which would not allow it to promote monsoon rainfall.

Significance for Disaster Management

• Early forecasting enables:
  • Better crop planning.
  • Water resource management.
  • Drought preparedness.
  • Food grain stocks management.
  • Timely policy interventions.

Way Forward

• Improve weather forecasting and prediction.
• Encourage use of climate-resilient, drought-tolerant cultivars.
• Use micro-irrigation and water conservation for better irrigation efficiency.
• Improve reservoir operation and groundwater recharge.
• Increase the scope of crop insurance and/or support for small and vulnerable farmers.
• Agricultural diversification and practices that are efficient in adaptation to climate change.

Conclusion

• El Niño’s intensifying presence signifies that India remains quite vulnerable to the risks of climate change.
• With the possibility of having one of the strongest El Niño events ever witnessed, proactive planning, resilient agriculture and water management will be critical to reduce socio-economic impacts.
• Food, water and livelihood security is stressed on the need for long-term climate adaptation and better forecasting.

Source: The Indian Express

Mains PYQ

Q. Drought has been recognized as a disaster in view of its spatial expanse, temporal duration, slow onset and lasting effects on vulnerable sections. With a focus on the September 2010 guidelines from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), discuss the mechanisms for preparedness to deal with likely El Nino and La Nina fallouts in India? (2014)

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