Trump Extends Iran Truce: Implications for India

Context

Pakistan has claimed that Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire agreement between United States and Iran, which he supposedly recognized on the mediation of Pakistan. This has geopolitical and economic implications on the region including India.

Why is Pakistan Arbitrating?

• The economic necessity and geopolitical calculations can explain the active attitude of Pakistan:
• It relies on energy imports via the Strait of Hormuz.
• The increase in oil prices endangers foreign exchange reserves, particularly when the IMF is involved.
• Millions of Pakistani laborers in the Gulf states are relying on the stability in the region.
• Long term war would aggravate inflation, trade deficits, and economic instability in Pakistan.

Geopolitical Balancing Act

• Pakistan is trying to walk the fine line of relationships:
  • Enhancing relationships with the US.
  • Having a 900-km long border and historical relations with Iran.
  • Strategic and economic ties with the Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia.
  • Reliance on China, which is also influenced by the war.
• Pakistan aims at not having to:
  • A weak Iran (resulting in instability at the borders)
  • Firmer Iran (which can disequilibrium power balance in the region)

What Pakistan Stands to Gain

• Diplomatic Boost
  • The world image improves with recognition as a central mediator of global image.
  • International assistance such as the EU and the Gulf countries.
• Economic Opportunities
  • A better picture can lead to the inflow of foreign investments and loans.
  • Supported stabilisation of economy in collaboration with IMF.
• Domestic Political Gains
  • Enhances the leadership of Shehbaz Sharif.
  • Strengthens role of military leadership, particularly Asim Munir.
• Risks and Pitfalls
  • Mediation can fail because of unpredictability of actors such as Trump.
  • Pakistan may be seen as favoring the US interests.
  • Any failure of negotiations can harm its reputation.
  • There can be more criticism of the US within the country.
  • Pakistan is on the thin side of diplomacy and the risk.

What It Means for India

• Short-Term Positive
  • A stable West Asia means constant energy supplies.
  • Indian economy is benefiting as a result of low volatility in oil prices.
• Long-Term Concerns
  • The enhanced international position of Pakistan can undermine the strategic position of India.
  • A greater role of the military in Pakistan can:
• Strict policies against India
  • Influence regional security processes.

Key Strategic Watchpoints

• Will Pakistan be a responsible regional stabiliser?
• Or will a greater world legitimacy embolden its military stance?
• Potential of more arms transactions and power.

Bigger Picture: Hybrid Regime in Pakistan

• The present state of affairs shows the hybrid model of governance in Pakistan:
• Diplomatic leadership by civilians.
• Strategic and security talks are conducted militarily.
• This twofold authority might reestablish the role of Pakistan in the world.

Conclusion

• The extension of the Iran ceasefire is not just a temporary cease of the fighting, but an indication of a changing geopolitical environment. 
• The rise of Pakistan as a mediator would redefine regional diplomacy and India should pay close attention to the changing balance of power especially the rise of the influence of the military as well as its acceptance across the globe.

Source: The Indian Express

Prelims PYQ

Q. What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India? (2017)

(a) India’s trade with African countries will enormously increase.
(b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.
(c) India will not depend on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India.

Ans: (c)

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