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Context
India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, implemented in 2017, was envisioned as a transformative reform to simplify taxation, boost manufacturing, and create a unified national market. Recent record-high GST collections and a surge in manufacturing exports have brought temporary relief to the sector. However, sustaining long-term growth requires addressing structural challenges and leveraging global shifts in supply chains.
GST’s Impact on the Manufacturing Sector
Simplification and Subsumption of Taxes
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- GST replaced a complex web of central and state taxes (excise, VAT, CST, octroi) with a single, unified tax, streamlining compliance and reducing the indirect tax burden for manufacturers.
- The elimination of cascading taxes-where tax was levied on tax-has lowered the overall tax incidence on manufactured goods, making Indian products more competitive.
Business Efficiency and Cost Savings
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- The ‘one nation, one tax’ approach has enabled manufacturers to optimize logistics and supply chains, reducing the need for multiple warehouses and lowering logistics costs.
- Seamless interstate trade has become possible, enhancing operational efficiency and market access for manufacturers.
Input Tax Credit (ITC) and Compliance
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- GST introduced the Input Tax Credit system, allowing manufacturers to offset taxes paid on inputs against their final tax liability, reducing costs and improving profitability.
- Digitization of compliance-through e-invoicing, automated filings, and digital audit trails-has increased transparency and reduced tax evasion, particularly benefitting MSMEs.
Positive Outcomes
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- Enhanced competitiveness due to simplified tax structure and reduced compliance burdens.
- Formalization of the economy, with increased participation from small and medium enterprises, especially post-pandemic.
- Record GST collections, with April 2025 seeing ₹2.37 lakh crore-up 12.6% year-on-year, reflecting improved compliance and economic activity.
Recent Export Surge: A Temporary Boost
Global Demand and Supply Chain Shifts
- India’s manufacturing sector witnessed a 10-month high in activity, driven by strong new orders and rising exports, especially as global businesses diversified away from China due to tariff risks.
- Major companies, like Apple, are shifting production to India, reinforcing its status as a ‘China-plus-one’ alternative for global supply chains.
Short-Term Factors
- The current export boom is linked to a temporary window-global buyers are fast-tracking orders from India ahead of the U.S. reimposing tariffs on Chinese goods in July 2025.
- This has led to a surge in export-oriented manufacturing and GST refunds, with exporters benefiting from streamlined digital refund processes.
Structural Challenges and Limitations
Sluggish Domestic Manufacturing Growth
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- Despite the export surge, India’s manufacturing sector grew only 4% in FY24-a four-year low-highlighting persistent structural bottlenecks.
- The current boost is largely export-driven and not rooted in robust domestic demand, making it unsustainable for long-term growth.
Compliance and Working Capital Issues
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- While GST has eased many burdens, challenges remain, especially for smaller manufacturers:
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- Increased working capital requirements due to GST on advances and stock transfers.
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- Complexity in availing input tax credit, particularly when dealing with exclusions (e.g., petroleum products).
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- Initial adjustment difficulties for SMEs, though composition schemes have provided some relief.
Sectoral Concerns
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- Some sectors face higher compliance costs or are affected by the exclusion of key inputs from GST’s ambit (like petroleum fuels), which impacts manufacturing competitiveness.
The Way Forward: Ensuring Sustainable Growth
- Strengthening Domestic Demand: To reduce reliance on temporary export booms, India must focus on boosting domestic consumption and building internal market resilience. Policy support for MSMEs and continued formalization will be key.
- Trade Diplomacy and FTAs: Negotiating favorable terms in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) can help Indian manufacturers access new markets and withstand global trade shifts.
- Deepening Digital Integration: Further integration of fintech with GST-such as wider adoption of e-invoicing and digital compliance tools-will sustain high compliance and broaden the tax base.
- Export Ecosystem and Logistics: Upgrading logistics infrastructure, export incentives, and faster refund systems will help Indian manufacturers capitalize on global supply chain realignments.
Conclusion
India’s manufacturing sector is experiencing a temporary respite, buoyed by record GST collections and a surge in exports driven by global factors. While GST has simplified taxation, reduced costs, and improved compliance, the current momentum is not rooted in sustained domestic growth. For long-term resilience, India must strengthen domestic demand, address structural bottlenecks, and leverage trade diplomacy and digital innovation to support its manufacturing ambitions.
Source: The Hindu