‘Supersized’ El Niño: Global & Indian Impacts

Context

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a special agency of the United Nations (UN), is concerned that this ‘Supersized’ El Niño event will prove to be one of the strongest ever. It is an important issue for geography and environmental ecology as it is a critical phenomenon in the context of global climate patterns, agricultural security and disaster management.

Understanding El Niño and the ENSO Cycle

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warm part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It is an abnormal warming of the upper ocean over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, a natural phenomenon of the climate system.

Mechanism of Alteration

• Normal Conditions: strong easterly winds blow across the Pacific Ocean pushing warm surface water toward Asia and Australia; cold nutrient-rich water wells up under South America (Peru Current).
• El Niño Conditions: Trade winds go weak or reverse. Warm water bounces back eastward to South America. This suppresses the cold upwelling and alters global atmospheric circulation (the Walker Circulation).

Why is the Current Event Termed ‘Supersized’?

• Unprecedented Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The current El Niño event is being described as “supersized” with SSTs in the key Nino 3.4 region rising much higher than the historical average, falling into the “historic” or “extreme” category.
• The Climate Change Amplifier: Anthropogenic GHG emissions are trapping excess ocean heat. In an El Niño year when there is a background warming of the planet, it produces extreme weather events that are unprecedented and beyond what has been experienced in the past, such as in 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Global Implications

• Shattering Temperature Records: Post-peak Super El Niño warms global climates with slow release of absorbed heat to the atmosphere by oceans. Thus, 2027 is expected to be the warmest year in history.
• Extreme Weather Asymmetry: The phenomenon affects the global precipitation distribution. It’s driving intense tropical storms and hurricanes in the central Pacific, and causing severe droughts in the Amazon rainforest, Australia and portions of Southeast Asia.
• Ecological Crisis: Marine ecosystems face critical disruption. Abnormally warm waters, up to 8°C warmer than normal in some areas, could cause a large scale coral bleaching event and impact fisheries around the world.

Specific Impacts on India

The southwest monsoon generally missed the impact of the dry spells as the peak was delayed by a few months, but the impact of the long dry spell is now into early 2027 and comes with its own set of challenges:

• Threat to Rabi Crops: A prolonged El Niño stretching into February 2027 will trigger an abnormally warm winter across northern India. Excessive terminal heat stress is a potential threat to the food security of the vital wheat belt in the winter season.
• The IOD Cushion: Fortuitously, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) co-developed during the latter half of 2026. This regional sea-warming event is a counter-balancing factor and partly compensates for the known monsoon anomaly during El Niño.
• Spring Heatwaves: History indicates that years after a Super El Niño always produce record summer heatwaves across the Indian subcontinent, the “decay year”.

Way Forward & Policy Measures for India

To counteract this “supersized” climate change, India has to take proactive administrative measures prior to the onset of the spring 2027:

• Good Food Contingency: It is necessary for the MofaC to keep healthy buffer stocks of wheat to compensate for any shortage in the Rabi season. Export policies need to be assessed on a dynamic basis for commodities that are climate sensitive, such as rice and onions.
• Urban Heat Action Plans (HAPs): Municipal corporations must turn on specific HAPs in advance in order to keep vulnerable populations safe from excessive heat during the summer months.
• Reservoir and Water Management: In drier states, water-budgeting and reservoir-rationing policies are necessary for coping with depletion of groundwater during the winter/spring.

Source: The Hindu, BBC

UPSC Practice Question 

Q. What do you understand by a ‘Supersized’ El Niño? Examine its impact on global weather anomalies and discuss its specific socio-economic implications for the Indian monsoon and agricultural economy.

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