Image Credit: SIPRI
Context
The SIPRI Yearbook 2026, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, highlights a dangerous shift in global security. The report details record-breaking military spending, structural decay in global disarmament treaties, and an accelerating modernization of nuclear forces.
Global Trends in Military Expenditure
Record-Breaking Global Defence Outlays
- Unprecedented spending: Global military expenditure reached an all-time high of US$ 2.9 trillion in 2025, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth.
- Leading spenders: The United States remains the largest military spender globally ($954 billion), followed sequentially by China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India.
- Geopolitical instability: The rise in outlays is directly linked to the continuation of the war in Ukraine, expanding conflicts in the Middle East, and growing tension in the Indo-Pacific region.
Erosion of Arms Control Architecture
- Treaty collapses: Treaties like the New START between the US and Russia are on the verge of expiration with no replacement frameworks.
- Shift to deterrence: The global security architecture has shifted away from cooperative disarmament toward competitive deterrence.
- Technology integration: Artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based hardware are complicating traditional strategic stability equations.
The Global Nuclear Landscape
Expanding Inventories
- Total global count: The estimated global nuclear inventory stands at approximately 12,187 warheads as of January 2026.
- Duopoly dominance: Russia and the US combined control roughly 83% to 90% of all stockpiled nuclear warheads.
- Rapid Chinese expansion: China continues the world’s fastest nuclear force buildup, increasing its stockpile to an estimated 620 warheads.
Nuclear Modernization Paradigms
- System upgrades: All nine nuclear-armed nations are systematically modernising their delivery systems (land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarines).
- Heightened readiness: Countries are shifting toward keeping warheads integrated with delivery platforms during peacetime to boost response times.
Key Findings Related to India
1. Defence Expenditure
- Ranking: India is the 5th largest military spender globally.
- Budget: India’s military expenditure stood at $92.1 billion.
- Driver: Spending is primarily directed toward operational readiness along borders and advancing indigenous defense manufacturing under ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’.
2. Arms Imports and Diversification
- Ranking: India remains the 2nd largest arms importer in the world.
- Strategic Shift: While Russia remains a major defense partner, India is actively diversifying its imports. It has significantly increased defense procurement from France and Israel to reduce single-source dependency.
3. Nuclear Capability
- Warhead Count: India’s nuclear arsenal expanded to an estimated 190 warheads.
- Operational Status: India is shifting toward the partial operational deployment of its warheads.
- Focus: Development is heavily focused on long-range delivery systems (like the Agni series) to establish a credible deterrent against a complex regional security landscape.
Strategic Implications for India
- The Two-Front Challenge: India’s military posture and nuclear upgrades are heavily influenced by a two-front threat environment, driven by China’s rapid military expansion in the Indo-Pacific and persistent strategic friction with Pakistan.
- Self-Reliance (Aatmanirbharta): Despite being a top importer, India’s massive spending highlights the urgent need to transition from an import-dependent military to an export-oriented defense industrial base through policy schemes like the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020.
Source: SmallWarsJournal
UPSC Prelims Practice Question
Q. Consider the following statements regarding the findings of the SIPRI Yearbook 2026:
- There are exactly nine states globally that possess nuclear weapons.
- India currently possesses a higher number of estimated nuclear warheads than Pakistan.
- According to SIPRI, India has entirely eliminated its dependency on Russian military equipment over the last decade.
- India is ranked as the fifth-largest military spender in the world, behind the United States, China, Russia, and Germany.
Which of the statements given above are correct?
(a) 1, 2, and 4 only
(b) 1, 3, and 4 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2, 3, and 4
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