Managing Demographic Change in India

Context

India’s demographic transition with declining fertility, ageing of population and regional demographic imbalances is greater than the fear of the population, and it is imperative to have evidence-based policy.

Key Highlights

• As the birth rate falls and the population slowly ages, the issue of demographic transition has become a big public policy matter in India. 
• While population loss, labor shortages and demographic imbalance are current issues in the public debate, leading up to the Z-2021 Conference, experts state that the problem is not the number of people, but the ability to manage the demographic change effectively through inclusive and economic and social measures.

Understanding India’s Demographic Transition

• India has now achieved replacement-level fertility with a TFR of about 2.0 children per woman.
• Population will likely keep increasing for decades, before leveling off, and then decreasing.
• India has a relatively young population and a demographic dividend as compared to many developed countries.

Major Concerns and Ground Reality

• Is India Heading Towards Population Decline?

  • India’s population is estimated to reach 1.7 billion and then slowly decrease over time, according to the United Nations.
  • The reduction will be more gradual rather than sudden.
  • Declining fertility is not a demographic problem, but rather a sign of increased education, health care and living standards.

• Will India Face a Workforce Shortage?

  • The elderly population in India is expected to grow manifold in the next few decades.
  • But the number of working-age people will be more or less constant over a number of years.
  • Labour shortages can be compensated by technological progress like Artificial Intelligence (AI), automation, and increased labour productivity.
  • There is significant potential for augmenting the workforce through enhanced labour force participation by women.

• Regional Demographic Imbalance

  • Fertility decline occurred in the southern states several years earlier than in the northern states.
  • Once the seat allocation freeze is lifted, political representation could change as a result of population-based parliamentary delimitation.
  • Meanwhile, states in the south have become more productive economically due to increased investments in education, health and human capital.
  • A balance between representing the population and contributing to the economy will be a key federal challenge.

• Religious Demography

  • The birth rates of all religious groups have been steadily decreasing.
  • While there are some differences, the gap in fertility has decreased over time.
  • There is no reason to fear a significant change in the religious landscape of India on the basis of current demographic trends.

Issues Arising from Demographic Transition

• Increasing dependency ratio in old age.
• An increase in healthcare and social security needs.
• Lack of skills among the working-age population.
• Low participation by women in the labour force.
• Demographic and economic variations at regional level.
• Urban planning and job creation needed.

Way Forward

• Increase expenditure on education, health-care and skill development.
• Improve women’s access to the formal sector with suitable labour policies.
• Improve social security and elderly care facilities.
• Increase productivity by leveraging innovation, digital technologies and Artificial Intelligence.
• Implement evidence-informed policies on populations rather than narratives of fear.
• Protect cooperation and maintain a balance between the federal levels.

Conclusion

• Demographic transition is not a problem for India; it is a good opportunity to make it a better nation. 
• Policy should be oriented towards human capital development, productive employment, gender equality and healthy ageing, rather than on population size. 
• A well-balanced and data-driven approach will help India reap long-term benefits from its demographic transition in the form of economic and social benefits.

Source: The Indian Express

Mains PYQ

Q. “Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable? (2016)

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