India’s Top Threat Is China: US Report

Context

A recent US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report has highlighted a significant evolution in India’s security calculus. While Pakistan has historically been India’s principal security concern, the report underscores a strategic shift: India now views China as its primary adversary, relegating Pakistan to the status of an ancillary security problem.

India’s Threat Perceptions

China: The Primary Adversary

• Border Tensions and Military Modernization: The 2025 DIA report notes that ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), especially after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, have positioned China as India’s foremost military and strategic challenge.
• Strategic Competition: China’s rapid military modernization, aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific, and attempts to expand influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are central to India’s security concerns.
• Nuclear and Technological Edge: China’s growing nuclear arsenal—projected to surpass 1,000 operational warheads by 2030—and its advances in disruptive technologies (such as hypersonic weapons and AI) further exacerbate India’s threat perception.

Pakistan: An Ancillary Security Problem

• Persistent but Manageable Threat: Despite recent cross-border hostilities, including missile and drone exchanges in May 2025 following terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, India now considers Pakistan a security issue to be managed rather than an existential threat.
• Pakistan’s Military Focus: The report notes that Pakistan remains focused on cross-border skirmishes, counterterrorism, and nuclear modernization, but its conventional capabilities are seen as less threatening compared to China’s.
• China-Pakistan Nexus: Pakistan’s military modernization, especially its nuclear program, is heavily supported by China, but this partnership is viewed as part of the broader China challenge rather than a standalone threat.

Recent Escalations and Responses

• May 2025 Hostilities: After a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, India launched missile strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan. This escalated into several days of military exchanges before a ceasefire was agreed upon.
• Ceasefire and Management: Both sides demonstrated restraint to avoid further escalation, illustrating India’s approach to treating Pakistan as a problem to be contained rather than a primary adversary.

Strategic Responses and Partnerships

Countering China’s Influence

• Indian Ocean Region (IOR) Focus: India prefers bilateral and multilateral defense partnerships in the IOR to counter China’s maritime ascendancy. It intends to do so via joint exercises, arms sales, and information exchange with like-minded countries.
• Global Leadership Aspirations: India, in the recent formulation of defense policy, gravitates more toward the projection of power and leadership in global and regional forums such as Quad, BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN.

Military Modernization

• Upgrading Capabilities: India is investing in modernizing its armed forces, including commissioning nuclear-powered submarines and enhancing missile capabilities to deter both China and Pakistan.
• Technological Collaboration: India is also seeking advanced technologies and defense cooperation with Western partners to bridge the capability gap with China.

Pakistan’s Perspective and Capabilities

• Existential Threat Perception: In contrast, Pakistan continues to regard India as an existential threat, driving its pursuit of battlefield nuclear weapons and military modernization.
• Reliance on China: Pakistan’s defense and nuclear modernization are heavily dependent on Chinese support, with joint exercises and technology transfers reinforcing this strategic partnership.

Implications for India’s Security Doctrine

• Strategic Realignment: The US intelligence assessment reflects a broader realignment in India’s defense doctrine, where countering China—militarily, diplomatically, and economically—takes precedence over managing the persistent but secondary threat from Pakistan.
• Regional Stability: This recalibration has implications for South Asian security, as it may shape India’s military investments, diplomatic initiatives, and crisis management strategies in the coming years.

Conclusion

India’s evolving security outlook, as captured in the US DIA report, marks a decisive shift toward prioritizing the China challenge while relegating Pakistan to a manageable, albeit persistent, security concern. This strategic realignment is likely to define India’s defense and foreign policy trajectory in the foreseeable future.

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Mains Practice Question

Q. “China poses the most significant strategic challenge to India’s security and regional stability.” Critically examine this statement in light of recent U.S. assessments. How should India recalibrate its foreign and defense policies to address this evolving threat?

Download as PDF