Image Credit: The Hindu
Context
India’s outreach to Myanmar is not a moral or political decision alone but a strategic link which is essential in the process of engagement. New Delhi has to constantly chart this relationship, given the various reasons of geography, national security concerns, critical resource requirements and the need to counterbalance China.
Engagement Drivers: Strategic Imperatives
- National security and border stability: Myanmar has a porous border of 1,643 km along four states of India – Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. It has historically been a safe haven for Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) in this rugged frontier. Getting the cooperation of Naypyidaw is essential to neutralise the militant camps. Moreover, unrest in Myanmar has effects on the states in India, resulting in the generation of refugee flows, displacement and friction in population.
- Critical Minerals: India is aggressively looking for alternative supply chains for heavy rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium, to support its domestic technology, defence and green energy. Myanmar is a world-class source of these minerals, with the traditional distribution pattern being to China. Engaging Myanmar provides India the opportunity to diversify its resource imports and cut down its strategic reliance on Beijing.
Connectivity and Economic Integration
Bridging South and Southeast Asia is central to India’s Act East Policy and Neighbourhood First Policy. This vision aims to transform India’s landlocked Northeast into an economic hub by integrating it with ASEAN supply chains. This goal is supported by two mega-projects:
- India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway: This is a route of about 1400 kms, which runs from Moreh (Manipur) to Mae Sot (Thailand) through Myanmar. This highway is on the route to play a key role in facilitating overland trade and laying the groundwork for further regional economic corridors.
- Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP): It is proposed to be built to connect the Port of Kolkata to Mizoram via the Kaladan River in Myanmar and the Port of Sittwe. This project helps to reduce dependency on the Siliguri Corridor or “Chicken’s Neck” in India.
The China Factor and Geopolitics
- China is still the most important external presence in Myanmar, with large investments through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Beijing’s strategic reach to the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port gives it access to the Bay of Bengal while avoiding the Malacca Strait and elevating the fear of “maritime encirclement” for India.
- By losing its diplomatic presence in Myanmar, India might lose its totality of the region to China, who can press hard on India’s maritime and terrestrial boundaries in the East. The active, calculated engagement in New Delhi, including hosting of high-level diplomatic delegations, secures strategic autonomy and hedging options for Myanmar, albeit without becoming totally dependent on Beijing.
Challenges to India’s Strategy
Although it makes perfect sense, there are huge obstacles to India’s policy:
- Internal Instability: Myanmar’s current civil war has left connectivity projects to languish. The Trilateral Highway and Kaladan routes are being slowed down by the fact that ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) now control large swaths of land which make up the routes, increasing the logistical costs of constructing them.
- Transnational Crime: There are advanced cyber scams networks and human trafficking gangs operating in the lawless border areas, captivating foreigners, including many Indians.
Conclusion
India’s path through Myanmar is a tightrope. New Delhi has to account for the realities of regional security and counter-hegemony while upholding democratic values. Finally, India’s future security on its borders, its strategic interests in its eastern neighborhood and its resistance to its total strategic encirclement by its neighbors will best be achieved through continued and pragmatic dialogue and economic cooperation.
Source: The Hindu
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