India’s Agri-Imports Face a Climate Shock

Syllabus- Agriculture [GS Paper-3]

17/07/2026

32 3 minutes read

India’s imports of vegetable oils, pulses and raw cotton could touch new highs in 2026-27 due to the impact of a strengthening El Niño.

India imported a record 16.4 million tonnes of vegetable oils, 1.1 million tonnes of raw cotton and almost 6 million tonnes of pulses in 2025-26.
The situation has a substantial impact on the Indian economy, food security and agricultural resilience because of the risk of poor monsoon rainfall to rain-fed crops.

El Niño is an unusual warming of the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and is frequently linked to less and less regular monsoons in India.
June 2026 had a rainfall deficit of 38 per cent over India and the southwest monsoon deficiency was 24 per cent as of 16 July.
Overall, the kharif sowing area is less than last year due to less and scattered rain.
Acreage in pulses and oilseeds has seen the largest decreases.
There has been a substantial year-on-year decrease in the sowing of Arhar, urad, groundnut and sesamum.
Fall cotton acreage has also dropped, leading to production and import worries.

Pulses, oilseeds, millets and cotton are rain-sensitive crops, and so are extremely sensitive to monsoon variability.
The intensity of El Niño may also increase temperatures and lead to a short and warm winter.
The conditions could impact the rabi crops like wheat, mustard, chickpea, masoor and potato.
Long periods of dry weather may result in cotton infested with pink bollworm, which will lower yield.
With reduced domestic production, India would be pushed towards heavy reliance on imports, putting additional pressure on the import bill.

This will make India more vulnerable to price fluctuations in the world market if the import of edible oils and pulses is increased.
The effects of competing uses of vegetable oil in biofuel production have already put a strain on the prices of vegetable oils.
Increased crude oil prices might stimulate the use of palm, rapeseed and soybean oil for the production of biodiesel.
The situation is significant for food inflation and household expenditure, as India is highly dependent on imported edible oils.
Import of such a large scale from abroad can also affect the goal of Atmanirbhar Bharat in agriculture.

India currently has significant rice and wheat stocks in government reserves, which offer protection against short-term food insecurity.
The government also has large stocks of pulses which can be released if there is a scarcity of supply.
Supply of pulses from East Africa, Canada and Australia can contribute to the stabilisation of pulses supplies.
Prices for several key food commodities, aside from wheat, are currently fairly secure globally, alleviating the risk of a crisis like the one after the Ukraine war.

India needs to boost resilient agriculture by using drought-tolerant, short-duration and pest-resistant varieties of crops.
The government should enhance meteorological forecasting on a real-time basis and disseminate meteorological advisories to farmers at district level.
Increasing investment in irrigation, watershed development and rainwater harvesting is crucial for decreasing dependence on monsoons.
Towards diversification of oilseeds and pulses, India should ensure adequate purchase of oilseeds, improve the seed technology and market efficiency.
Food inflation needs to be managed through strategic buffer stocks and flexibility in import policies in order not to adversely affect the domestic farmers.
The best way to solve the problem is to include climate science, agricultural planning and food security policy in the long-term solution.

Indian agriculture is vulnerable to global climate variability as pulses and vegetable oil imports are likely to increase, while cotton is likely to experience a decline.
El Niño is not only a weather event, but it’s also a threat to food security, inflation control and agricultural self-sufficiency.
India can better cope with future climate shocks through climate-smart agriculture, strategic stocks, and scientific agricultural planning.

Source: The Indian Express