Global Implications of the Escalating West Asia Conflict

Context

The growing tension between Iran and the United States-Israel alliance has set West Asia in one of the most geopolitical crises since the Second World War.

Key Highlights

• The region of West Asia is experiencing one of the most dangerous periods in post-Second World War history because of the growing military conflict between Iran and the United States-Israel coalition.
• The war has transformed into a strategic war into a litigating and extending regional war with extensive global implications.

Background of the Conflict

• A mediation by diplomatic sources led by Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi had shown the potential of a nuclear deal with Iran.
• Nevertheless, the United States and Israel organized military attacks on Iran, which were aimed at the presidential and infrastructural targets.
• When Ali Khamenei was killed, it was a significant escalation and a shift to confrontation instead of deterrence.
• The words of Donald Trump implied support of change of regime, which pointed to greater geopolitical goals.

Geopolitical Drivers of the Conflict

• Iran is considered by Israel to be a significant challenger in the region as it has military potential and strategic power.
• The existence of the missile programme and the funding of local non-state actors have been the main Israel issues surrounding Iran.
• This war is an indication of more significant geopolitical goals to change the hierarchy of power in the region.
• This has rendered Iran the sole formidable opponent to the established power in West Asia, considering that other actors in the region have been weakened.

Collapse of Diplomatic Structures

• The Iran Nuclear Deal was supposed to curb the nuclear programme of Iran and to stabilize the region.
• Nevertheless, the issues concerning Iranian conventional army and its presence in the region weakened the success in the long term.
• The mistrust coupled with the self-interest of the two has caused recurrent failure of negotiations.

Military Strategy and Escalation

• Strikes of decapitation are indicative of an effort to destabilize the political rule in Iran within a short duration.
• Iran has shown its strong ability to fight back through a reform in its leadership and retaliatory attacks.
• The dispute has grown to be a bilateral affair, with many countries and military bases being targeted.
• The strategic value of energy paths is indicated by the threat of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional and Global Implications

• The tension threatens to turn into a full-blown local war among several countries in the Gulf.
• Oil supply shocks would have a great effect in the energy markets and stability of the economy globally.
• The long term war can be tiring to defence systems and make the region more vulnerable.
• The crisis highlights the weaknesses of the traditional military superiority in the realization of political goals.

Way Ahead

• Diplomatic interaction needs to be revived to avoid further deterioration and destabilisation in the region.
• The long-term peace requires confidence-building measures and multilateral negotiations.
• The strategy of de-escalation of conflicts should be put at the forefront of global powers, rather than regime change.
• There is a need to enhance regional cooperation structures that will be used to respond to security issues.
• Global priority should be to ensure the security and stability of the major trade routes of energy.

Source: The Hindu

Mains PYQ

(Q) “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)

• West Asia has experienced one of the greatest threats that it has ever encountered since the Second World War.>
• The war is a sign of geopolitical battles and not just individual military interventions.
• There have been diplomatic moves, which have not been effective in averting escalation.
• Strait of Hormuz is a significant point of energy security in the whole world.
• The resolution of the conflict will define geopolitics in the region and the world at large in decades.

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