Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in India

Context

India experienced its warmest February in 124 years, with the average temperature exceeding 22°C. This unprecedented heat, coupled with forecasts of above-normal temperatures and increased heatwave days in March 2025, poses significant challenges for winter crops such as wheat, India’s second-most consumed staple after rice. Climate-induced heat stress during the maturation phase threatens wheat yields, particularly in regions where sowing was delayed

Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Yield

• Temperature and Precipitation Variability

• • Rising temperatures during the wheat-growing season have been identified as a major factor reducing yields. Studies show that wheat production decreases by approximately 8.38 million tons for every 1°C rise in average growing season temperature.
  • Regions that witness a seasonal maximum temperature over 27°C and a minimum temperature above 13°C become extremely vulnerable. Central and South-Central India are warmer and expected to suffer more than cooler regions. 
  • Altered precipitation patterns can interfere with the sowing schedule and irrigation practices, further aggravating yield losses. 

• Carbon Dioxide Fertilization: Increased CO₂ can promote photosynthesis and increase actual yields. However, these benefits are frequently overtaken by heat stress and water deficiency. Hence, the net effect of CO₂ fertilization is very much dependent on the region. 
• Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs): Pollutants like black carbon and ozone directly hurt wheat plants. Research shows that the SLCPs caused a 36% reduction in wheat yield in 2010 from the potential yield had these pollutants not been allowed to emit.
• Regional Vulnerabilities: India’s diverse climatic zones exhibit varied impacts of climate change on wheat production:

1. Indo-Gangetic Plains: These regions are greatly affected by rising temperatures and humidity, thus lowering their tolerance for heat stress.
2. Central India: Whereas minimum temperatures during the wheat-growing period are lower, maximum temperatures tend to be higher, resulting in low wheat yields.
3. Northern Hilly Regions: Whereas for most other areas, higher temperatures appear to be conducive for wheat production due to colder climatic conditions prevailing here.

• Projected Impacts: Simulations predict significant yield reductions under different climate scenarios:
  • By 2050, wheat yields could decline by 6–23%, depending on emission levels.
  • By 2080, losses are projected to increase further, ranging from 15–25%. Late-sown areas are particularly vulnerable compared to timely-sown regions due to increased exposure to heat stress during critical growth stages.

Adaptation Strategies

Improved Agronomic Practices

1. Timely sowing: Converting late-sown areas into timely-sown regions can mitigate yield losses significantly.
2. Efficient use of inputs: Enhanced irrigation and fertilizer management can offset some negative impacts of climate change.

Climate-Smart Technologies

Advanced modeling techniques such as deep learning-based approaches (e.g., XGBoost, GRU) provide insights into region-specific factors affecting wheat yields. These technologies can help farmers make informed decisions about sowing times and input usage.

Conclusion

Climate change poses a severe challenge to India’s wheat production, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. While adaptation strategies like timely sowing and efficient resource use offer hope for mitigating yield losses in the short term, long-term solutions require innovative approaches tailored to regional needs. Policymakers must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices and invest in climate-resilient technologies to safeguard India’s wheat production against future climatic uncertainties.

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Prelims Practice Questions

Q. Consider the following statements regarding the impact of climate change on wheat production in India:

1. Rising temperatures during the wheat-growing season can reduce grain yield.
2. Increased CO₂ levels always enhance wheat productivity.
3. Extreme weather events like unseasonal rainfall and heat waves can affect wheat quality.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 1 and 3 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2, and 3

Answer: (b)

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