China’s Missile Test and the Emerging Nuclear Balance in Asia

Context

China recently successfully launched its first submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile (SLBM) in international waters, signaling its growing nuclear arsenal and consequently, concerns in the strategic sphere for India and the Indo-Pacific.

Key Highlights

• China test-fired a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile (SLBM) which is a significant step in its military modernisation efforts. 
• The test represents Beijing’s emerging nuclear power and consolidates its position in the emerging Indo-Pacific security architecture. 
• The development underscores India’s necessity to improve maritime deterrence, defence readiness, and strategic collaborations.

Why is China’s Missile Test Significant?

• China launched an SLBM from a Type-094 Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) operating in the South China Sea successfully.
• The missile is said to have covered some 7,300 km before landing in the South Pacific Ocean.
• This marked China’s first test of a ballistic missile launched from a submarine in overseas waters and second test of a long-range ballistic missile away from China since 1980.
• The test is a sign of China’s growing self-assurance in its strategic nuclear arsenal.

Understanding China’s Nuclear Modernisation

• Fortifying the Nuclear Triad

  • China is quickly expanding its nuclear triad of:
    • Land-based ballistic missiles.
    • Air-delivered nuclear weapons.
    • Missiles fired from submarines that have a nuclear warhead.
  • Nuclear survivability of a nation’s nuclear weaponry is much greater with a complete nuclear triad.

• Enhancing Second-Strike Capability

  • Ballistic missile submarines are nearly impossible to detect and destroy whilst submerged.
  • This will allow China to retaliate even if it takes a first nuclear blow.
  • Strategic deterrence enhances strategic vulnerability reduction if a credible second strike capability can be developed.

• Shift Beyond Minimum Nuclear Deterrence

  • The Chinese government’s official stance is that it has a No First Use policy, but recent events suggest:
    • Increase in missile silos.
    • The use of longer-range missiles.
    • Modernisation of Command and Control.
    • Increase in the number of nuclear warheads.
  • These are all signs that there is a gradual change from the “minimum deterrence” ideology to a more aggressive nuclear posture.

Implications for India

• Growing Strategic Challenge

  • China is continuing to modernize its nuclear arsenal at a fast pace, thus deepening the strategic disparity with India.
  • It presents new security issues in the Indo Pacific region.

• Need to Strengthen India’s Sea-Based Deterrence

  • The operationalization of nuclear triad in India has been done by the INS Arihant class SSBN.
  • But the induction of longer-range ballistic missiles carried by the submarine, like K-5 and K-6 is required to be faster.
  • A greater second strike capacity is still essential to a credible deterrence strategy.

• Importance of Maritime Security

  • Such strategic submarines can now be deployed from comparatively secure waters of the South China Sea by China.
  • India needs to:
    • Improve Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operations.
    • Increase the scope of undersea surveillance networks.
    • Enhance the maritime domain awareness in Indian Ocean Region.

Impact on the Indo-Pacific

• China’s military power is increasing, changing the situation of power in the region.
• It heightens security concerns in India, Japan, Australia and the U.S.
• The development could speed up the modernization of defense forces and strengthen strategic ties between the Quad countries.
• It reiterates the significance of a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific.

Way Forward

• Boost indigenous development of long-range SLBMs and next generation SSBNs.
• Improve maritime monitoring and anti-submarine warfare and modernise the navy.
• Improve strategic partnerships via Quad and other Indo Pacific platforms.
• Promote the development of sophisticated defence technologies, space monitoring and missile defence systems.
• Pursue credible minimum deterrence and achieve strategic security in the region.

Source: The Indian Express

Mains PYQ

Q. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (2018)

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